Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 202.766586 245.305145 297.649215 367.884595 461.369791 5.840716e+02 7.617622e+02
2025-06-29 154.374913 203.839412 272.494465 378.432392 545.055855 8.112483e+02 1.302823e+03
2025-07-06 124.354593 173.754956 248.026351 374.413586 599.545793 1.020828e+03 1.986888e+03
2025-07-13 112.252429 164.940717 250.122452 409.167449 729.995491 1.441175e+03 3.550118e+03
2025-07-20 102.489213 156.934465 250.458993 439.714837 867.347839 1.986247e+03 6.388057e+03
2025-07-27 93.788289 148.590510 247.646996 462.602438 1001.041510 2.656560e+03 1.155721e+04
2025-08-03 85.808784 139.850441 241.811071 476.869687 1123.065192 3.444411e+03 2.108983e+04
2025-08-10 78.246264 130.503722 232.649767 480.500812 1219.802021 4.291171e+03 3.831137e+04
2025-08-17 70.794393 120.197504 219.463387 470.323264 1270.372982 5.040895e+03 6.624214e+04
2025-08-24 64.298026 110.829837 206.555718 457.171414 1305.608527 5.806864e+03 1.172605e+05
2025-08-31 58.695038 102.508496 194.518494 443.076993 1331.444479 6.607781e+03 2.180167e+05
2025-09-07 57.594483 103.078788 202.374723 487.255037 1621.209767 1.019306e+04 1.506667e+06
2025-09-14 53.930692 98.056000 196.847412 491.854958 1756.818008 1.322633e+04 1.562708e+07
2025-09-21 51.320569 94.956894 195.450638 509.541935 1979.740582 1.881407e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 47.889030 89.658158 187.712908 503.979792 2079.740732 2.370046e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 47.228800 90.394748 195.463131 555.532404 2588.511938 4.451925e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 46.223402 90.207548 200.775898 601.268574 3151.313296 8.694953e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 44.821786 88.915025 202.835834 635.803363 3711.676733 1.724864e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 43.105598 86.666356 201.791247 657.445290 4221.958234 3.435671e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 41.085033 83.456776 197.410940 662.967193 4600.941983 6.518552e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 38.710778 79.144442 189.094361 647.504410 4729.418911 1.033298e+06 NaN
2025-11-16 36.437883 74.888108 180.385242 627.588632 4783.843357 1.586406e+06 NaN
2025-11-23 34.330706 70.872465 171.903461 606.329167 4797.771462 2.421322e+06 NaN